Why Campaigns for Local Transportation Funding Initiatives Succeed or Fail: An Analysis of Four Communities and National Data

Abstract:

As funding from state and national sources has dwindled and demands for relief from traffic and congestion have grown, local governments and transportation agencies are increasingly left to develop their own sources of enhanced revenues. Frequently the bid to increase available revenues comprises a local ballot measure, enabling the citizens served by these governments and agencies to express their preferences for or against increased taxation in support of an improved transportation system. What determines the success of campaigns in support of such ballot measures? To answer this question, this report includes the use of two different approaches and data sources.

1) A statistical analysis of community-level characteristics. Data from localities across the nation, as well those within the state of California, that have conducted elections for transportation tax increase are analyzed to determine what factors seem to affect the outcome of such elections.

2) Case studies of four communities that recently conducted elections for transportation tax increases (Santa Clara and Sonoma Counties in California, and the Denver and Seattle metropolitan areas). The case studies allow for in-depth, qualitative understanding of what election strategies and other campaign elements comprise successful or unsuccessful efforts to raise local revenues.

Among the most significant findings from the statistical analysis of local elections were the following:

Efforts to fund transportation with taxes where the proportion of elderly is greater than 9 percent are more likely to succeed In communities where the percentage of elderly is greater than 9 percent, the analysis indicates that voters may be more willing to accept local transportation taxes. However, in communities where the percentage of elderly is less than 9 percent, transportation measures may require significantly more determined marketing to enhance the probability of passage.

Efforts to increase sales taxes for transportation programs will be less successful in communities with higher sales taxes.

A relatively strong and negative relationship between sales tax and support for transportation tax initiatives was identified in the national election data. This suggests that communities with relatively higher sales taxes will be hard pressed to convince citizens to support additional increases.

Keywords: 140 Pages $15.00

Library of Congress No. 99-076280

A publication of the

Norman Y. Mineta

International Institute

for Surface Transportation

Policy Studies

Created by congress in 1991

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The Mineta Transportation Institute has received funding through the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and the Research and Special Programs Administration (RSPA) of the U.S. Department of Transportation to conduct policy related activities in the areas of research, education, and information sharing with a focus on United States surface transportation.

In addition to the research team and interviewees, the authors thank the many individuals who helped to complete this project, including Institute Research Director Trixie Johnson and Communications Manager Jeanne Dittman. A special thank you goes to Brian Taylor, Ph.D. and Assistant Professor of Urban Planning at the UCLA School of Public Policy and Social Research, for his invaluable contribution.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

INTRODUCTION: THE DEVOLUTION OF TRANSPORTATION

FUNDING 3

Organization of this Report 4

The Evolution of Transportation Funding in Metropolitan Areas 5

THE IMPACT OF COMMUNITY CHARACTERISTICS ON

TRANSPORTATION FUNDING OUTCOMES 21

Predictor Categories 23

Methodology 25

Results 34

Analysis of Datasets 41

Directions for Future Research 43

CASE STUDIES: CAMPAIGNS FOR TRANSPORTATION TAX

MEASURES IN FOUR COMMUNITIES 47

Introduction 47

Prior Research on Voter Influences Pertaining to Local Transportation

Funding Initiatives 47

Recommendations for Obtaining Voter Approval of Transportation

Funding Initiatives 49

Evaluation of Recommendations for Obtaining Voter Approval of

Transportation Funding Initiatives 51

Case Study I 53

Case Study II 65

Case Study III 81

Case Study IV 93

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 109

Introduction 109

Critical Success and Failure Factors: Transportation and Funding

Package 111

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 133

BIBLIOGRAPHY 134

ABOUT THE AUTHORS 139

PRE-PUBLICATION PEER REVIEW 140

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2-1. Type of Funding Mechanism on Transportation

Tax Measures in U.S. 44

Figure 2-2. Percentage Voting for Transportation as a Function of

Funding Mechanism 44

Figure 2-3. Percentage Voting for Transportation as a Function of

Population Growth 45

Figure 2-4. Percentage Voting for Transportation as a Function of

Driving Alone 46

List of Tables

Table 2-1. Dependent Variable 26

Table 2-2. Independent Variables 27

Table 2-3. Regression Specification for National Dataset 28

Table 2-4. Hypotheses for National Dataset 28

Table 2-5. Dependent Variable 30

Table 2-6. Independent Variables 30

Table 2-7. Regression Specification for California Dataset 32

Table 2-8. Hypotheses for California Dataset 33

Table 2-9. Average County Population for Measures that

Passed/Failed 35

Table 2-10. Model: Dependent Variable = Proportion Voting for

Transportation Measure 36

Table 2-11. Summary of results: California Data 37

Table 2-12. Average County Population for Measures that

Passed/Failed 39

Table 2-13. Summary of Results: National Data 40

Table 3-1. RTA Proposal 89

Table 3-2. PR Funding 91

Table 3-3. The percentage of ‘yes’ votes for each county in both the

997 GTR election and the 1995 TABOR override. 106

Table 4-1. Comparison of Cases on Relevant Characteristics

Pertaining to Coalition Building, a Transportation and Funding

Package, and Marketing and Communications Programs

Targeted at Voters 109

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2) Case studies of four communities that recently conducted elections for transportation tax increases (Santa Clara and Sonoma Counties in California, and the Denver and Seattle metropolitan areas). The case studies allow for in- depth, qualitative understanding of what election strategies and other campaign elements comprise successful or unsuccessful efforts to raise local revenues.

Among the most significant findings from the statistical analysis of local elections were the following:

Efforts to fund transportation with taxes where the proportion of elderly is greater than 9 percent are more likely to succeed

In communities where the percentage of elderly is greater than 9 percent, the analysis indicates that voters may be more willing to accept local transportation taxes. However, in communities where the percentage of elderly is less than 9 percent, transportation measures may require significantly more determined marketing to enhance the probability of passage.

Efforts to increase sales taxes for transportation programs will be less successful in communities with higher sales taxes.